Are Home Prices Dropping in NY?
No. If you are asking "are home prices dropping in NY," the August data says the opposite. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller has the New York metro up 6.2% in a year, second among the 20 metro areas it tracks. I'm Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., with $550M in sales. The national number is not your market.
If you own in New York and want a number for your own home instead of a national headline, my team at SERHANT. will prepare a custom valuation. Get your valuation.
What does Case-Shiller New York show for August 2026?
It shows New York near the top of the country. The New York metro index rose 6.2% from August 2025 to August 2026.
S&P Dow Jones Indices released the August 2026 S&P Cotality Case-Shiller results on October 27, 2026. Chicago led all 20 metros with a 6.7% annual gain. New York was second at 6.2%. Cleveland was third at 4.3%. At the other end, Seattle fell 2.0%, Las Vegas fell 1.3% and Denver fell 0.8%.
S&P called it "strong regional divergence," and the spread proves it: nearly 9 percentage points between the strongest market and the weakest one, in the same month.
One more thing to know about what this index measures. Case-Shiller tracks the price path of typical single-family homes in each metro area, using repeat sales of the same houses. The New York number covers the whole metro area, not one borough, one neighborhood or one building.
Why do the headlines say home prices are falling?
Because nationally, after inflation, they are. The headline is not wrong. It is just not about New York.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 2.1% in the year to August. Consumer prices rose 3.4% over the same stretch. So in real terms, U.S. home values fell for the 15th consecutive month, by S&P's own count.
There is a second reason the headlines sound gloomy. Month to month, before seasonal adjustment, the national index slipped 0.2% from July to August. After seasonal adjustment, it rose 0.3%. S&P's read is that the typical post-summer slowdown is hiding some underlying strength. New York did the same thing: down about 0.2% from July before adjustment, up about 0.5% after.
That is how a reader ends up hearing "prices are falling, so wait." Take a national real-terms decline, add a seasonal monthly dip, and you get a scary sentence. Then look at the New York line, and the story flips.
Are home prices dropping in Florida?
It depends which Florida you mean. In the same August report, Miami and Tampa moved in opposite directions.
The Miami metro index rose 4.2% in a year. The Tampa metro index fell about 0.4%. Same state, same report, same month. One is up solidly. One is slightly down.
My team works both markets, and this is the cleanest proof of the whole lesson. "Florida" is not one market any more than "the U.S." is one market. My own read, from my seat: interest rates affect a lot of markets that don't necessarily affect New York City, and in Florida I think the condo market is getting hit by that pretty hard. That is my view, not an index number. Case-Shiller measures single-family homes, so it does not settle the condo question on its own.
Is Manhattan real estate going down?
Case-Shiller cannot answer that by itself, because its New York index is metro-wide. This release has no separate Manhattan line.
So if someone quotes a Case-Shiller number as a Manhattan number, push back. The index covers single-family homes across the New York metro area. A Manhattan co-op or condo is not a single-family house, and every building trades on its own comps.
Here is my view from Manhattan. Inventory is scarce. It's wealthy person negotiating against wealthy person. I feel like the market is softer, and sellers will have to take a little less. Buyers have to get out there and make a lot of offers. That is a negotiation story, not a collapse story.
If you want to talk through what your building is actually trading at, call me at (917) 453-4526 or reach the team here.
What do I tell agents when a client quotes the national number?
I tell them to stop arguing with the headline and start narrowing it. The national number is the league average. Your client plays one game, in one building.
When a seller or buyer brings me "prices are falling," this is the sequence I coach:
- Start with the national number, and say it plainly: up 2.1% in a year, behind 3.4% inflation.
- Narrow to the metro. New York: up 6.2%. Miami: up 4.2%. Tampa: down about 0.4%.
- Narrow again to the product. Case-Shiller is single-family homes. A co-op, a condo and a townhouse each have their own market.
- Finish on the comps. The building, the line, the floor, the recent sales. That is the number a decision gets priced on.
An agent who can walk a client from the national headline down to their own comps, calmly and with sources, is the agent the client trusts with the next move. That is the job. Preparation creates freedom.
Are home prices dropping in NY enough to wait for a better price?
Not according to the August data. The New York metro was up 6.2% in a year, second of the 20 metros S&P tracks, so waiting for a broad New York price drop means betting against the trend in the index.
Waiting can still be the right call for your life: your timeline, your job, your family's plans. That is a real reason. "The national headline says prices are falling" is not, because the national headline is not measuring your home.
If you are a seller weighing timing, read Should I wait until spring to sell? If the bigger fear is a crash, I lay out how I read that in Is the housing market going to crash?
FAQ
Is NYC real estate going down?
Not in the August 2026 Case-Shiller data. The New York metro index was up 6.2% in a year. For one borough or one building, the recent comps tell you more than any index.
Which metro had the biggest home price gain in August 2026?
Chicago, up 6.7% in a year, followed by New York at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.3%, according to S&P Cotality Case-Shiller.
When is the Case-Shiller index released?
S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes it on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00am ET. The August 2026 data came out October 27, 2026.
How do I contact Nile Lundgren about pricing a home in New York or Florida?
Call (917) 453-4526 or use the contact page at nilelundgren.com/contact. For a valuation on your own home, use nilelundgren.com/home-valuation.
Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., with $550M in sales and nearly two decades of experience. Licensed in New York and Florida. RealTrends Top 1 percent. Cast member of Netflix's Owning Manhattan.
Call (917) 453-4526 or contact the Lundgren Team at SERHANT. at https://nilelundgren.com/contact
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Planning your next move? Talk to Nile.
Nile Lundgren, founder of the Lundgren Team at SERHANT., has $550M in sales and is recognized among the RealTrends Top 1 percent. A cast member of Netflix's Owning Manhattan, he works with buyers, sellers and investors across New York and Florida, including Miami and Tampa. Tell him what you are planning and his team will follow up.
Prefer to talk? Call (917) 453-4526. Selling? Get a custom home valuation at nilelundgren.com/home-valuation